{"id":15356,"date":"2026-08-31T15:47:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T12:47:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/?p=15356"},"modified":"2026-08-31T15:47:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T12:47:34","slug":"%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%84%d9%85%d9%81%d9%87%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/2026\/08\/31\/%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%84%d9%85%d9%81%d9%87%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644"},"content":{"rendered":"<div 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\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627. \u0641\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u064a\u0631\u0628\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u064b\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u062a\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 (frequency interpretation of probability)\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0645\u0627 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0647. \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0623\u064a\u061b \u0641\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0647\u060c \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0638\u0647\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u062b\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644. \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0623\u064a (\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0646\u062c\u0627\u062d \u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629) \u0645\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637 \u0628\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631.<\/p>\n<h2>5. \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629: \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0633\u0646\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0629<\/h2>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a \u0647\u064a: \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0641\u0636\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u061f \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 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src=\"http:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06272-300x65.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"65\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06272-300x65.jpg 300w, https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06272.jpg 372w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u0646\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 X \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 AC. \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 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\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627: \u00abX \u0647\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 A\u00bb\u060c \u00abX \u0647\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 A<sub>1<\/sub>\u00bb \u0648\u0647\u0643\u0630\u0627&#8230; \u00abX \u0647\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 C\u00bb. \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645\u060c \u064a\u064f\u062d\u0633\u0628 (XAB)P \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-15377\" src=\"http:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06273-560x83-1-300x44.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"44\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06273-560x83-1-300x44.jpg 300w, https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06273-560x83-1.jpg 560w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 AB \u0648\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 AC \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u062a\u0647\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0633\u0631 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641. \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c 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\u0639\u062f\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-15382\" src=\"http:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u06278.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"126\" height=\"51\" \/> \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 AB\/AC \u0639\u062f\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u062a\u0648\u062b\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0644\u0640 X\u20acAB \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631. \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 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\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645. \u0648\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0633\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-15384 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0660-300x60.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"60\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0660-300x60.jpg 300w, https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0660.jpg 727w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0623\u0628\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 XAB. \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0632\u0627\u062f \u0639\u062f\u062f n (\u0623\u064a \u0635\u063a\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0639 n)\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0633\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 AB x \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 XAB \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-15385 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0661-768x141-1-300x55.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"55\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0661-768x141-1-300x55.jpg 300w, https:\/\/mbsadr.ir\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f-\u0635\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0661\u0661-768x141-1.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0631\u0647 AB\/AC<\/p>\n<p>\u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641\u060c \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0648\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a (\u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u063a\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641)\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u063a\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0642\u062f \u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0628\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a.<a href=\"#_ftn9\" name=\"_ftnref9\">[9]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0627 \u0630\u064f\u0643\u0631\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0643\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 XAB \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a AB\/AC\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0633\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a. \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0648\u062b\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0641\u0636\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0637. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0646\u062a\u0647\u064a \u0647\u0646\u0627. \u062a\u0648\u062b\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629 \u064a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0641\u0629\u060c \u062a\u064f\u0633\u0645\u0649 \u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064b\u0627 \u00ab\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0636\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u00bb (paradoxes of geometrical probability). \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0636\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0633\u0646\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627:<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636\u0648\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639\u064b\u0627 \u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0623\u062d\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629. \u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0636\u0644\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u0627\u062a \u064a\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0648\u062d \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0631. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0631\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0637\u0648\u0644\u0647 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.5 \u0645\u062a\u0631\u061f \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0627\u0628 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0635\u0641. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u062d \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649: \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0623\u062d\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0648\u062d \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0631\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0647\u0647 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u061f \u0628\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u060c \u064a\u064f\u0642\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u0646 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\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0636\u0644\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628 x \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.5 \u0645\u062a\u0631.<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628 x \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639.<\/li>\n<li>\u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628 x \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0645\u0643\u0639\u0628.<a href=\"#_ftn10\" name=\"_ftnref10\">[10]<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646\u060c \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062d\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0642\u0627\u062a\u061f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 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\u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0644\u0645 \u062a\u064f\u062d\u0644 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u062d\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0648\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644.<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0642\u062f\u0645\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0630\u0643\u064a \u062c\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0648\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621. \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0628\u062d\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0639\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0641\u0631\u0635\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649. \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0637\u0631\u062d\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0641\u0647\u064a \u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0633\u0628 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\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0628\u0630\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u064a\u0646\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0647 \u0645\u0632\u0627\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0634\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u062d\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0627\u0634\u064a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0635\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Gillies,D.,(2000)<\/p>\n<p>Mellor,D.H.,(2005)<\/p>\n<p>Fitelson,B.&amp;Hajek,A.&amp;Hall.N..(1999)<\/p>\n<p>Hajek,A..(2003)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u0640\u00ab\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0634\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629\u00bb \u0647\u064a \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0647\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0641\u064a (the insufficient reason principle) \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0647\u061b \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0628\u0648\u0631\u063a\u064a\u0641 (\u0646\u06a9: \u0627\u0628\u0648\u0631\u063a\u06cc\u0641\u060c 1410\u0647 \u0642\u060c \u0627\u0644\u06a9\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c \u063588).<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0623\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u2013 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u2013 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0641\u0644\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u064b\u0627 (\u0646\u06a9: \u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c 1402\u0647 \u0642\u060c \u0635 175).<\/li>\n<li>\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Sainsbury, (1991), p. 267-281: Benet, (2003), p.152-158.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"6\">\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0644\u0629 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0640 p<sub>1<\/sub> \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0644\u0640 p<sub>1<\/sub>. \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642\u062a\u0647 \u0644\u0640 q<sub>i<\/sub>\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0635\u062f\u0642 q<sub>i<\/sub>.<\/li>\n<li>\u064a\u062c\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0641\u0635\u0644\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 (q-q<sub>n<\/sub>) (p-q<sub>1<\/sub>) \ua4e6\u2026\ua4e6 \u0648 p\u2192(q<sub>1<\/sub>\ua4e6\u2026\ua4e6<sub>n<\/sub>) \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0626\u062a\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0630\u064f\u0643\u0631\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629.<\/li>\n<li>\u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u064f\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u0629 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0630\u0643\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u062a\u0646\u0637\u0628\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621.<\/li>\n<li>\u064a\u062c\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u064a\u0631\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647\u060c \u0635139). \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u064a\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u062f \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0643\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u062f\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629. \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u064a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627.<\/li>\n<li>Hajek, A.,Interpretation of Probability. Vers. Shbstantive revision.,Dec 31,2009.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/\">http:\/\/plato.Stanford.Edu\/edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0628<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0623\u0628\u0648\u0631\u063a\u064a\u0641\u060c \u0639\u0645\u0627\u0631\u060c (1410\u0647 \u0642) \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u060c \u0642\u0645: \u0645\u0647\u0631.<\/li>\n<li>\u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c \u0633\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631\u060c (1402\u0647 \u0642) \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621 (\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0643\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u0644\u0625\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646)\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0631\u0648\u062a: \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0631\u0641 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0628\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a.<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062f\u060c \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f\u060c (1388) \u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0648\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0647 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0646\u0642\u062f \u0648\u0646\u0638\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f (\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u064a) 55.<\/li>\n<li>Bennett, J., (2003) A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals, London, oxford University Press.<\/li>\n<li>Fitelson, B. &amp;Hajek. A. &amp; Hall, N., (1999) \u201cprobability\u201d, The Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosofhy of Pfeiffer j., Rausch S., and Sarkar S. (\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0631\u0648\u0646)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>URL=http:\/\/philrsss.anu.edu.awpeople-defaults\/alanh\/papers\/probability.pdf.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"6\">\n<li>Gillies, D., (2000) Philosophical Theories ofProbability, London, Routledge.<\/li>\n<li>Hajek, A., &#8220;Interpretation of Probability&#8221;, The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophi (\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 2003)\u060c Edward N. Zaltra (\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0631). URL=<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/\">http:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>8.MILLOR, D. H., (2003) Probability: A Philosophical Introduction, London &amp; New York, Routledge.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"9\">\n<li>Sainsbury, M., (2003) Logical Forms, London, Blackwell Publishing Company.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a>. \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0635\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649: Gillies,D.,(2000) Mellor,D.H.,(2005) Fitelson,B.&amp;Hajek,A.&amp;Hall.N..(1999) Hajek,A..(2003).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a>. \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u0640\u00ab\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0634\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629\u00bb \u0647\u064a \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0647\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0641\u064a (the insufficient reason principle) \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0647\u061b \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a>. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0628\u0648\u0631\u063a\u064a\u0641 (\u0646\u06a9: \u0627\u0628\u0648\u0631\u063a\u06cc\u0641\u060c 1410\u0647 \u0642\u060c \u0627\u0644\u06a9\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c \u063588).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a>. \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0623\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u2013 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u2013 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0641\u0644\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627\u064b (\u0646\u06a9: \u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c 1402\u0647 \u0642\u060c \u0635 175).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a>. \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631: Sainsbury, (1991), p. 267-281: Benet, (2003), p.152-158.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a>. \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0644\u0629 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0644 p<sub>1<\/sub> \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 p<sub>1<\/sub>. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0635\u0648\u062f \u0628\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642\u062a\u0647 \u0644\u0640 q<sub>i<\/sub> \u0648\u0628\u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0635\u062f\u0642 q<sub>i<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref7\" name=\"_ftn7\">[7]<\/a>. \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0635\u0644 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 (q\u2192q<sub>n<\/sub>) (p\u2192q<sub>1<\/sub>) \ua4e6\u2026\ua4e6 \u0648 p\u2192(q<sub>1<\/sub>\ua4e6\u2026\ua4e6<sub>n<\/sub>) \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0626\u062a\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0630\u064f\u0643\u0631\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref8\" name=\"_ftn8\"><strong>[8]<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>\u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u064f\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u0629 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0630\u0643\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u062a\u0646\u0637\u0628\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref9\" name=\"_ftn9\">[9]<\/a>. \u064a\u062c\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0631\u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0642\u0637 (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647\u060c \u0635139). \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u064a\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u062f \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0643\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u062f\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u061b \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629. \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0633\u0628 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u064a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref10\" name=\"_ftn10\">[10]<\/a>. Hajek, A.,Interpretation of Probability. Vers. Shbstantive revision.,Dec 31,2009. <a href=\"http:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/\">http:\/\/plato.Stanford.Edu\/edu\/entries\/probability-interpret\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u062a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u062f\u0626 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u0646\u0633\u062c\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":12364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 | \u0645\u0631\u06a9\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642\u0647 \u0645\u0639 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a. \u062a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0631 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